Take this one with a grain of salt, folks: in a recent submission to the court in conjunction with its ongoing lawsuit, Oracle estimated that revenue from Android activations made every day net Google a whopping $10 million across an entire year. Estimating that the figure stays solid over 2012 (and keep in mind, it’s almost certain to increase) that would mean that Google makes approximately 3.7 billion dollars on Android advertising alone. Oracle did not say how it reached this conclusion, but Free and Open Source Software advocate Florian Muller guesses that they’re assuming $14 of ad revenue per Android user, per year.
Without hard data, it’s touch to know whether Oracle has any sort of basis for this claim – even if Google were to release the source and target of all of its massive advertising income, restricting it to Android users (and specifically those Android users who activate a phone or tablet through Google) would be almost impossible. And considering that Google is the most profitable and active web advertising company in the world, how could you say that Google would make significantly less without Android? If iOS or Window Phone 7 were the dominant mobile platform, Google would still be making an incredible amount of cash. Keep in mind that it’s in Oracle’s best interests to paint Android as a cash cow – they’re presenting the legal opinion that it violates their Java intellectual property. Oracle previously claimed 1.16 billion dollars in damages from Google.
Oracle claims that Android generates plenty of direct revenue as well, thanks to sales in the Android Market. It also makes loyal users of satellite services like Gmail and Google Plus, which in turn make Google more money on both the desktop and mobile side of the web. None of these points are invalid; Google is a publicly traded company whose end goal is to make profit. They’ve chosen to do so by providing services and selling ads, instead of directly creating and inflating hardware. None of the allegations presented in Oracle’s latest statement are illegal – they’re simply trying to demonstrate how much money Google is making off of “their” intellectual property. If ORacle can push the case into a full-on trial and come out victorious, the $10,000,000 a day figure will likely weigh heavily on any settlements or damages.