According to research firm Market Force Research, the average consumer in the US is now more likely to buy an Android device than the iPhone. A survey conducted by the firm found that 34% of respondents planning to buy a smartphone are looking for Android devices and 21% are looking for the iPhone. A mere 12% have eyes on a Blackberry for their next smartphone.
Of all the survey respondents about 21% didn’t know what smartphone they were going to buy. The firm also found that 51% of consumers have a smartphone and of those that don’t, 33% plan to buy one in the next six months. Only 6% of those that responded plan to purchase a phone without data access.
“With the Verizon-Apple partnership in motion, we anticipated that more consumers would be moving to the iPhone, so it intrigued us to see the sizeable shift toward the Android,” said Janet Eden-Harris, chief marketing officer for Market Force. “Some of our other research data shows that consumers aren’t likely to switch from their current wireless carriers, and a large portion use Sprint and T-Mobile, so Android will most likely be their smartphone choice.”
this is because more people are doing research on what they buy. More people are educating them selfs on their purchase. Im happy that this is going on . When there is more choices other than then iphone. When you can customized your phone not just changing your wallpaper and calling it a day. This is where android shines .
The real survey is to determine which phone consumers will purchase. They need to breakdown the Android phone into its seperate vendors. These vendors do not get to share profits so its not really important how many total Android phones are selling. That data is for bragging rights only and phone manufacturers do not care about bragging rights, they only care about profits.
Luckily for Apple, smartphones are only a small part of the total platform.
The far more important numbers for developers, advertisers, investors and consumers are *total* unit sales of each platform, overall installed base, software and peripheral hardware market share, developer mindshare and developer income.
Judging by last quarter’s results, I don’t think Apple has nearly as much to worry about as you make out.
*Unit Sales Q4 2010* (source: Canalys)
– 32.7 million Android smartphones and tablets (tablets like the Galaxy tab and Dell streak were counted in these numbers because they all have cell phone hardware).
– 33 million iOS devices (16 million iPhones, 10 million iPod touches, 7 million iPads)
Note that Android numbers are inflated by inclusion of the Tapas and OMS forks of Android (which aren’t compatible with Android or running Google apps or services) running on millions of Chinese smartphones.
*Installed base*
– “There will be an installed base of 140 million Android portable devices, including smartphones and tablets, by the end of 2011” according to IMS Research.
– iOS installed base (Dec 2010) = 160 million with the vast majority of those added in the last 2 years.
With Apple shipping 33 million iOS devices in q4 2010, the projected iOS installed base will hit somewhere around 250 million by the end of 2011 if current iOS sales rates stay the same. However, iOS sales rates have been doubling every year so this figure is enormously conservative.
*App Store Revenue 2009 – 2010*
(source: IHS):
– iOS App Store grew from $769 million to $1.782 billion = $1.013 billion increase
– Android Marketplace grew from $11 million to $102 million = $91 million increase
So annual Android developer income is a meagre 6% of iOS with an annual rate of increase only 9% as large as iOS. The gap between the two is getting far larger every year.
*App numbers 2009 – 2010*
(source: Distimo)
– iOS Apps grew from 120,000 to 300,000 = 180,000 increase
– Android Apps grew from 20,000 to 130,000 = 110,000 increase (not including ringtones, wallpapers and soundscapes)
So the annual increase in app numbers was greater for iOS by 164% compared to Android. The gap between the two is increasing each year with the iOS store growing 1.6x faster than Android. Also, approx 45% of Android apps are spamware according to Appbrain so the real Android total is far less.
*Advertising income per user*
(source: Mobclix)
Mobclix’s Jan 2011 stats demonstrate that in the Advertising game, iPhone users are far more valuable than Android users.
In the Games category, the average iPhone user brought in more than double the advertising revenue per month compared to the average Android user, a third more income in the entertainment category and 30% more in the utilities category.
Even on Google’s home turf – advertising – iOS beats Android.
*Phone Manufacturer Profit Share*
(source: Asymco)
Despite only having 4% market share of the entire cell phone industry, Apple captured 51% (up from 48% last year) of the profit share of the entire cell phone industry compared to Motorola on 1%, Samsung on 2%, LG on -2% and Nokia on 17%.
So, to summarise, which mobile OS platform will continue to have by far the largest installed base for years to come? Which platform brings in 17x the income for developers compared to the other? Which platform has the most quality apps by a country mile? Which platform has by far the least malware? Which platform has the most free apps? Which platform has the most games? Which platform has far more top tier games? Which platform has by far the most hardware peripherals, cases, docks, car interfaces etc? Which platform has no spamware? Which platform brings in the most advertising income per user?
Why that would be iOS of course with Android trailing very far behind. These are the jaw-dropping facts that are missed by only looking at one metric like smartphone unit sales. You need to see the forest beyond the trees.
-Mart
@mrrtmrrt
Thanks for putting that together.
As always, perspective is important.